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Just two days before the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant forecast – going beyond the winner overall, and precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in the city, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity recently for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win while missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to Bushwick to a third locale, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in readership and most voters favored Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Patterns and Surprises

How was your election night?

It was necessary since they were adding around 200,000 votes into the tally every few minutes! I felt a little nervous initially: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of votes added later and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday went kind of poorly for him, in which Cuomo would have basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained 500,000 votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, tenants and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously backed Zohran this year. However it’s not that he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the election was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was much greater than anticipated. I thought it could exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to surpass half. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still around 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he does so then none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any area. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an highly conservative area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and plus gained many Republicans on the island with a high participation. I think occurred significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened before the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of the boroughs?

I think existed some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for Cuomo. So there existed a little resistance. But no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

Prior to the vote we reported on if the candidate was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. So it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York means politically? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see more of that – people will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that each urban center in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.