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On occasions when the wind blows northwest from Belarus, Lithuania prepares for disruptions.

That is when enormous inflatables are launched across the border, with boxes of cheap cigarettes dangling beneath.

Over the last two and a half months, this illicit balloon traffic has compelled Lithuania's main airport into shutdown 15 times, stranding thousands of travellers.

On one occasion, the airspace was closed completely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the officials are certain they are confronting something far more hostile than mere smugglers.

They assert the balloons have been "weaponised" in an act of hybrid warfare by Belarus, an ally of the Kremlin.

State of Alert

The Lithuanian government has announced an emergency situation.

While balloons have been used by smugglers previously, their numbers suddenly surged this October.

"Naturally it began as criminal enterprise, but we've seen more than once how Belarus exploits criminal networks to impact bordering nations," a senior official stated.

The official noted the balloons are launched from locations that help them best "target" Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If you want to make a smuggling operation, you'd do it in the woods or swamps, not directly at our airport!" the minister argued.

Instead, there is a belief that the balloons represent a form of coercive pressure on Europe's border region.

"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the military and security field."

Border Vigilance

Now, each evening, security forces patrol in the frontier area.

The balloons are primarily seen during the night.

Units establish mobile checkpoints on isolated lanes, checking drivers' documents and searching vehicles looking for anyone involved to the smuggling networks.

The balloons fly too high up to make shooting them down a viable or cost-effective option.

Consequently, the government has offered a substantial reward to any firm that can devise how to safely stop them.

For now, teams use advanced tracking systems to track the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the landing sites.

Soon, new criminal charges for aviation disruption should also serve as a preventive measure.

Political Objectives

The frontier line is now marked by a tall metal fence, with barbed wire and fortifications.

This enhanced fortification is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now views its neighbour as threatening.

Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "fabricated".

He recently blamed "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.

In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, creating a deliberate crisis.

"The current pattern involves a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, precisely targeted at the airport," explained a crisis management official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it tomorrow. But they don't. That means it benefits them."

The prevailing theory is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into easing international restrictions.

"They want to attract political attention and compel us to change our policies towards Belarus," is how one minister interprets the sudden influx of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as president following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown.

Sanctions were levied then and strengthened later when Belarus assisted Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the diplomatic ostracism of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.

Public Discontent

For now, travellers and airlines face disruptions.

"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.

Revenue losses for all affected businesses are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.

"There are direct financial costs, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"I am convinced this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then laugh at us."

Her words hint that another aim of such hybrid activity – undermining confidence – is also working, and perhaps more difficult to counter.

"They're basically testing the limits of Nato: looking at how we protect against these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even fight simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the basic stuff."