A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
